Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.049359 0.056200 0.063858 0.073104 0.084018 0.096553 0.112132
2025-11-30 0.039276 0.047765 0.058066 0.071620 0.089190 0.111476 0.142343
2025-12-07 0.032106 0.041292 0.053237 0.070199 0.094144 0.127492 0.178827
2025-12-14 0.026042 0.035145 0.047721 0.066835 0.096017 0.140407 0.216192
2025-12-21 0.020533 0.028832 0.040890 0.060311 0.092057 0.144320 0.242526
2025-12-28 0.017605 0.025738 0.038183 0.059480 0.096933 0.164196 0.305168
2026-01-04 0.015536 0.023606 0.036586 0.060167 0.104810 0.192554 0.399394
2026-01-11 0.013668 0.021497 0.034670 0.059958 0.111283 0.221387 0.513628
2026-01-18 0.012108 0.019655 0.032899 0.059678 0.117797 0.253775 0.661644
2026-01-25 0.010597 0.017674 0.030549 0.057793 0.120574 0.279619 0.815702
2026-02-01 0.009209 0.015718 0.027930 0.054816 0.120147 0.298036 0.967212
2026-02-08 0.008341 0.014598 0.026743 0.054684 0.126781 0.340241 1.256997
2026-02-15 0.007559 0.013555 0.025587 0.054506 0.133803 0.389934 1.660391
2026-02-22 0.006971 0.012814 0.024939 0.055427 0.144555 0.460915 2.309840
2026-03-01 0.006432 0.012094 0.024220 0.056037 0.154963 0.540526 3.215807
2026-03-08 0.005834 0.011175 0.022910 0.054809 0.159279 0.600837 4.184694
2026-03-15 0.005132 0.009950 0.020716 0.050673 0.152270 0.606253 4.728826
2026-03-22 0.004770 0.009419 0.020080 0.050841 0.161045 0.699556 6.608303
2026-03-29 0.004505 0.009071 0.019835 0.052128 0.175004 0.839328 9.998509
2026-04-05 0.004224 0.008651 0.019343 0.052556 0.186019 0.979094 14.727147
2026-04-12 0.003963 0.008247 0.018833 0.052819 0.196782 1.136580 21.947911
2026-04-19 0.003668 0.007728 0.017941 0.051597 0.200329 1.249527 30.096685
2026-04-26 0.003362 0.007151 0.016815 0.049318 0.197821 1.312896 38.199754